LA
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2026 delivered net revenue of $2.371B (+7% YoY, +8% constant currency) and diluted EPS of $2.60; results were essentially in line with consensus (Revenue: $2.370B estimate vs $2.371B actual; EPS: $2.603 estimate vs $2.60 actual) and at the high end of company guidance . Revenues/EPS consensus data: Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Gross margin expanded 60 bps to 58.3% on lower product costs and better markdowns; SG&A deleveraged 170 bps to 39.8% largely due to an FX revaluation loss, compressing operating margin to 18.5% (-110 bps YoY) .
- Americas comparable sales declined 2% (constant -1%) amidst U.S. store traffic softness, while International remained strong (+6% comps; China Mainland +8% constant-currency comps) .
- Guidance: FY revenue maintained at $11.15–$11.30B, but FY EPS lowered to $14.58–$14.78 (from $14.95–$15.15); Q2 2026 guided to $2.535–$2.560B revenue and $2.85–$2.90 EPS, with margin headwinds from tariffs and foundational investments .
- Key catalyst: Tariff headwinds and planned mitigation (modest strategic pricing and sourcing efficiencies) plus expanding distribution of high-profile product innovation (Align No Line) into all stores by fall; management emphasized agility, brand strength, and market-share gains despite a cautious U.S. consumer .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- International momentum: Net revenue +19% (+20% constant) with China Mainland +22% constant and Rest of World +17% constant; total international comps +6% (+7% constant) .
- Gross margin expansion: +60 bps YoY to 58.3%, ahead of guidance, driven by ~130 bps product margin improvement (lower costs, improved damages and markdowns) partially offset by FX and fixed-cost deleverage; “gross margin approximately flat” guidance was exceeded .
- Product innovation and brand activations: Early success of Align No Line (initial 80 doors), Daydrift trouser sell-outs, Be Calm, Glow Up; “Summer of Align” campaign raised unaided U.S. brand awareness from mid-30s to 40% .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. softness: Americas comps -2% (constant -1%), lower store traffic persisted into Q1; management noted a “more cautious, discerning consumer” and elevated promotional activity in the U.S. market .
- SG&A deleverage and FX: SG&A rose to 39.8% of sales (+170 bps YoY), above guidance due to an FX revaluation loss; operating margin fell to 18.5% (-110 bps YoY) .
- Inventory dollars up 23% to $1.652B (units +16%), pressured by higher average unit cost (AUC) from tariffs and FX; management expects dollar inventories to be up low‑20s in Q2 as mitigation actions phase in mostly in 2H .
Financial Results
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Guidance Changes
Notes: Management assumes incremental tariffs of ~30% on China and ~10% on remaining sourcing countries; mitigation via vendor savings and targeted pricing, with greater impact in 2H .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We intend to leverage our strong financial position and competitive advantages to play offense, while we continue to invest in the growth opportunities in front of us.” — CEO Calvin McDonald .
- “Given the uncertainties in the macro environment… we are maintaining our revenue guidance for the full year. We now expect gross margin to decrease ~110 bps and operating margin to decrease ~160 bps versus 2024, driven predominantly by increased tariffs.” — CFO Meghan Frank .
- “Unaided brand awareness in the U.S. grew from the mid-30s in Q4 to 40% in Q1.” — CEO Calvin McDonald .
- “We are planning to take strategic price increases on a small portion of our assortment… modest in nature, alongside sourcing efficiency actions, with more impact in the second half.” — CFO Meghan Frank .
- “Align No Line… early results very encouraging… will roll to all stores by September.” — CEO Calvin McDonald .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariff mitigation: Management will implement modest, targeted price increases and sourcing/vendor efficiencies; expects mitigation to be more impactful in 2H 2025 and into 2026 .
- U.S. comps: Lower traffic persisted; conversion slightly down YoY; average dollars per transaction higher; promotional intensity monitored, with risk of a spike in the back half if macro headwinds continue .
- Markdown outlook: Q1 markdowns down ~10 bps YoY; prudently modeling 10–20 bps higher markdowns for FY amid consumer confidence concerns, not yet observed materially in results .
- Inventory: Dollar inventory up due to tariffs and FX (AUC higher), units up low double digits expected in Q2; composition viewed favorably with investments in newness .
- China and International: Still strong double-digit growth; China comps impacted ~4 pts by Chinese New Year timing; store count ~154 with runway to ~200 and co-location strategy ahead .
Estimates Context
- Relative to S&P Global consensus, Q1 2026 revenue was essentially in-line (+$1.11M, ≈+0.05%), while EPS was marginally below (-$0.003, ≈-0.1%); Q2 2026 actuals (reported later) were below revenue consensus but above EPS consensus, reflecting tariff and investment impacts on margins . Consensus values: Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Implications: Minor estimate drift likely on margins (GM, OM) rather than top line for FY, with sell-side models incorporating higher tariff assumptions, modest pricing, and 2H mitigation phasing .
Financial Results Detail: Segment and KPIs
Guidance and Margin Architecture Detail
Key Takeaways for Investors
- International strength offsets U.S. softness: Expect continued double-digit growth in China and Rest of World to drive mix, while U.S. comps may lag until traffic improves and newness scales distribution in the fall .
- Margin path is tariff-dependent: Near-term pressure (Q2) with mitigation actions back-half weighted; watch for evidence of vendor savings and price capture without harming elasticity in premium segments .
- Newness as a growth lever: Align No Line and lifestyle introductions (Daydrift, Be Calm) have strong early traction; full-store rollout is a potential 2H catalyst for comps and AURs .
- Inventories elevated but intentional: Higher AUC from tariffs/FX and unit growth to support innovation; monitor cadence of sell-through and markdowns given cautious U.S. consumer .
- Capital allocation: Ongoing repurchases ($430M in Q1) signal balance sheet strength; reconcile press release vs CFO share count detail when modeling average price/weighted shares .
- Estimates likely converge on lower margins vs prior: FY EPS guide reduced; model a conservative GM/OM trajectory with modest price increases and FX/tariff sensitivity; revenue guide maintained .
- Near-term trading setup: Q2 margin pressure is known; focus on updates to tariff mitigation, U.S. traffic trends, and fall product activation to gauge inflection potential into holiday .
Values retrieved from S&P Global* for consensus estimates.